Gold cools off its 3-month high as PCE decides the next move
XAU/USD touched $4,710 on Tuesday — its best level since May — then gave a chunk of it back overnight. Nothing about the structure has broken; this looks like ordinary profit-taking ahead of today's PCE inflation print, the last major data point before Kevin Warsh takes the stage at Jackson Hole on Friday.
What's driving it today
Gold hit a three-month high above $4,700 on Tuesday and couldn't hold it — by Wednesday morning it had eased back into the $4,645–$4,660 range as some longs took profit and the dollar found a little footing. That's a normal pullback inside an uptrend, not a reversal signal; price is still comfortably above the $4,600 zone that turned from resistance into support earlier this month.
The one thing that can actually change that picture lands today: the July PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is released this evening (8:30am ET / evening in Pakistan). It's the last significant data point before Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair on Friday — and with the board already showing hawkish dissents and markets pricing a hike as more likely than a cut by year-end, a hot PCE print would add fuel to that hawkish case and could pressure gold harder than usual. A soft print would do the opposite and hand the dollar another leg lower.
Underneath the day-to-day noise, the medium-term drivers from earlier this week haven't gone anywhere: the Treasury's oversized long-bond buyback is still keeping long yields capped, and Middle East tension — including the Iran sanctions story — continues to support safe-haven demand. Today is really about whether PCE reinforces the hawkish Fed narrative or gives the bulls room to push back toward $4,700.
What the chart is saying
Nothing has changed structurally since the breakout. Gold topped near $5,605 in January, swept liquidity above that high, then reversed hard — including a violent stop-hunt wick down to roughly $4,100 in March. From there it built a clean series of lower highs into June before basing for almost two months between $3,940 and $4,150. That base is still the floor under this entire move. August's break back above the descending trendline flipped the structure bullish, and today's pullback is simply price digesting that move just under the old $4,711 pivot rather than breaking anything.
Daily XAU/USD, marked up with ICT/SMC structure — same framework used across the Trading Hub 3.0 system.
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 4,823 | Prior consolidation supply |
| R1 | 4,711 | Tuesday's pivot, first hurdle back up |
| S1 | 4,600 | The zone bulls need to keep defending |
| S2 | 4,488 | Minor swing support |
| S3 | 4,376 | Bias invalidation level |
| Demand | 3,940–4,150 | The base — structural floor for the move |
Bias
This is a lower-confidence bullish read than earlier in the week, and deliberately so — PCE lands before this bias has a chance to play out, and it can move price well outside these levels in either direction. The safer approach today is to wait for the data, watch how price reacts around $4,600–4,635, and size down rather than pre-position heavily. A daily close back below $4,600 would soften this bias to neutral; a close under $4,376 invalidates it outright.
This is educational and research content, not financial advice, and it isn't a guarantee of any outcome. Gold is volatile and event-sensitive — cut size around the PCE release and again ahead of Friday's Jackson Hole speech, know your invalidation level before you enter, and don't risk more than you can afford to lose. The trade is yours.